⚡ CARROLL PARK CAPITAL CALLS ⚡

BITCOIN 10-YEAR PROJECTION ANALYSIS • OCT 2025

This report has been prepared by Carroll Park Capital to provide investors with a directional outlook on Bitcoin's potential price trajectory over the next decade. This analysis represents a purely hypothetical exercise based on current market data, historical patterns, and probability-weighted scenario modeling. This is not financial advice. All projections are speculative in nature and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

► BTC PRICE TRAJECTORY: 2025-2035 ◄

🐻 BEAR CASE

$375K
2035 TARGET
18% PROBABILITY

📊 BASE CASE

$1.05M
2035 TARGET
60% PROBABILITY

🚀 BULL CASE

$3.2M
2035 TARGET
22% PROBABILITY

⚡ SCENARIO BREAKDOWN ⚡

DETAILED PRICE PROJECTIONS BY YEAR
YEAR 🐻 BEAR (18%) 📊 BASE (60%) 🚀 BULL (22%) EXPECTED VALUE
2025 $77,000 $140,000 $187,000 $136,000
2026 $62,000 $200,000 $270,000 $188,000
2027 $70,000 $220,000 $380,000 $227,000
2028 $95,000 $240,000 $525,000 $257,000
2030 $175,000 $450,000 $1,000,000 $476,000
2032 $265,000 $650,000 $1,750,000 $712,000
2035 $375,000 $1,050,000 $3,200,000 $1,150,000

⚡ WEIGHTED EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATION ⚡

EV = (Bear × 0.18) + (Base × 0.60) + (Bull × 0.22)
► 2035 PROJECTION: $1,150,000 ◄

⚡ MINING ECONOMICS ⚡

HASHPRICE & NETWORK PROJECTIONS
► HASHPRICE PROJECTIONS ($/PH/DAY) ◄

NETWORK HASHRATE

2025 Current
1,040 EH/s
2030 Projection: 3,000+ EH/s

MINING DIFFICULTY

2025 Current
147T
Growing 30-35% CAGR

CURRENT HASHPRICE

October 2025
$51/PH
Varies by scenario

⚡ MINING PROFITABILITY OUTLOOK ⚡

2028 HALVING IMPACT: Block rewards cut from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC
EFFICIENCY REQUIREMENT: Sub-10 J/TH machines needed post-2028
ENERGY COSTS: Operations below $0.06/kWh remain competitive
CONSOLIDATION: Only most efficient operations survive long-term

⚡ KEY MILESTONES TIMELINE ⚡

CRITICAL EVENTS & PROJECTIONS
2025

CURRENT POSITIONING

  • BTC at $105-111K (recent ATH $126K)
  • 338 institutions holding (↑100% YoY)
  • $58B in spot ETF AUM
  • US Strategic Reserve established
2026

INSTITUTIONAL ACCELERATION

  • 10+ sovereign wealth funds holding BTC
  • ETF flows: $20-30B/year sustained
  • Supply below 1M BTC remaining to mine
  • 50%+ institutions with crypto allocation
2028

⚡ HALVING EVENT #5 ⚡

  • Block reward: 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
  • Daily issuance: 450 → 225 BTC/day
  • 50+ S&P 500 companies hold BTC
  • Network hashrate: 2,000-3,000 EH/s
2030

DIGITAL GOLD STATUS

  • 97.7% of supply already mined
  • 70%+ of supply illiquid
  • BTC ETFs surpass gold ETF AUM
  • 20+ nations with BTC reserves
2032

⚡ HALVING EVENT #6 ⚡

  • Block reward: 1.5625 → 0.78125 BTC
  • Daily issuance: 225 → 112.5 BTC/day
  • Extreme scarcity phase begins
  • Transaction fees = majority of miner revenue
2035

MATURE RESERVE ASSET

  • ~98.5% of supply mined
  • 75%+ supply completely illiquid
  • Global monetary reserve integration
  • Expected Value: $1.15M per BTC

⚡ SUPPLY/DEMAND DYNAMICS ⚡

THE SCARCITY THESIS
► DAILY BTC ISSUANCE vs. INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ◄

2025 SUPPLY

450
BTC/DAY ISSUANCE
~19.9M of 21M mined (94.8%)

2028 SUPPLY

225
BTC/DAY ISSUANCE
~20.5M of 21M mined (97.7%)

2032 SUPPLY

112.5
BTC/DAY ISSUANCE
~20.8M of 21M mined (98.9%)

⚡ CRITICAL SUPPLY FACTS ⚡

65-75%
OF SUPPLY ILLIQUID BY 2030
Long-term holders, lost coins, strategic reserves
3-4M
BTC PERMANENTLY LOST
Inaccessible wallets, lost keys, burned coins

⚡ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ⚡

THE BOTTOM LINE

🎯 PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED OUTCOME 🎯

2035 EXPECTED VALUE
PER BITCOIN
18%
BEAR CASE
$375K
60%
BASE CASE
$1.05M
22%
BULL CASE
$3.2M

⚡ INVESTMENT THESIS ⚡

  • SUPPLY SHOCK: Post-2028 halving creates extreme scarcity (225 BTC/day)
  • INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION: 75% of institutions expanding crypto allocations
  • REGULATORY CLARITY: GENIUS & CLARITY Acts provide framework
  • SOVEREIGN ADOPTION: Multiple nations building strategic reserves
  • DEMAND IMBALANCE: Institutional demand far exceeds new supply
⚡ ASYMMETRIC RISK/REWARD PROFILE WITH STRONG STRUCTURAL SUPPORT ⚡