Three or four times a year we publish a measured read on Bitcoin — price, network state, mining economics, corporate treasuries, and policy. We track our own prior calls in the open and revise when the data demands it.
A round trip from a 21-month low at $57,950 to $81K and back, the summer the corporate treasury trade broke, three straight months of record ETF flow swings, and a 2026 base case cut to $85K–$110K.
Predictions scorecard against Fall '25 and Winter '26, the May on-chain and market picture, public-company treasuries, legislative status, and a 2026 base case revised down to $110K–$140K.
Performance vs. our Fall 2025 predictions, current network state, mining economics, forward projections, institutional adoption, and scenario analysis. 2026 base case trimmed to $135K–$165K.
The inaugural report: a probability-weighted price trajectory through 2035, mining economics, key milestones, and the supply/demand scarcity thesis. Weighted 2035 expected value $1.15M.
Not your keys, not your coins. The six custody models from exchange accounts to institutional custody, the risks each one relocates, and the failures that sit outside all of them.